If the NFL has taught us anything over the years, it’s that the league is almost completely unpredictable. Before 2020, the only thing that was predictable about the NFL was that the Patriots would win their division every year, but even that’s no longer a guarantee.
In fact, with a new starting quarterback and eight players retiring from the season, there’s a good chance the Patriots will end up falling in last place in 2020. The idea of a team going from first place to the last place in the space of a season may seem unlikely, but it happens quite regularly in the NFL.
Since the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, there have been a total of 18 teams that went from worst to first, which is an average of exactly one team per year over that 18-season span (the last team to do so was the 2018 Jaguars, who went 5-11 a year after winning the division in 2017 with a record 10-6)
Basically, NFL history says that at least one team will go from first place in 2019 to last place in 2020, and because we like to rank things here, we’re going to rank the top eight from last year. to determine which The team is most likely to be a wine merchant in 2020.
To check out our list of potential worst-to-first teams, be sure to click here. If you click I will wait here until you come back. For everyone else, let’s go from first to worst.
Ranking the teams most likely to go from first to worst
(All division ratings via William Hill)
Record 2019: 12-4
The odds of winning AFC West: -450
After winning the Super Bowl last season, the Chiefs could be even better in 2020, and that’s because they bring almost everyone back. Even though Kansas City had two players who retired for the year, the Chiefs will still return 18 of the team’s 22 starters from last year. As if that wasn’t enough, they have a coach in Andy Reid who has turned the rest of the division into his own personal punching bag. In their last 29 games against opponents from the AFC West, the Chiefs have gone 27-2. I think what I’m trying to say here is that if the Chiefs finish last place this year, I’m going to print this story, sprinkle salt on it, and eat it with a little cup of nacho cheese. On a related note, I’ll only eat half the story if they finish last due to an injury to Patrick Mahomes.
Record 2019: 14-2
Chances of winning AFC North: -260
The Ravens had the best record in the NFL last year and while they probably won’t win 14 more games, it’s hard to imagine them falling all the way to the basement of AFC North. Of course, it is not impossible. The last time a team was 14-2 or better with the eventual NFL MVP when its quarterback arrived in 2015, when the Panthers were 15-1. In 2016, Carolina continued her miraculous season going from first to worst with a 6-10. The difference is, the Panthers played in a much more competitive division. A big plus for the Ravens this year is that the other three AFC North teams have big question marks: the Bengals have a rookie quarterback, the Browns have a freshman coach and the Steelers don’t know how Ben Roethlisberger is. watching. All of this seems to be an advantage for Baltimore.
Record 2019: 13-3
Chances of winning NFC South: -110
In a busy NFC South, it won’t be at all surprising that the Saints don’t repeat themselves as division champions this season, but it would be surprising if they fall to last place, and that’s mainly because that the Panthers exist. When you look at what happened this offseason and the fact that the teams weren’t able to train in the spring, that’s something that benefits a veteran team like the Saints, but hurts a team. like the Panthers, who will break into a new head coach, two new coordinators and a new starting quarterback this year.
Record 2019: 9-7
Odds of winning NFC Est: +150
If the Eagles have an advantage over the rest of the NFC East, it’s the fact that they’re the only team in the division that will NOT have a new head coach in 2020. Basically that means while Washington , Dallas and New York will all be installing new things during training camp, the Eagles will be spending their time perfecting Doug Pederson’s system. The NFC East haven’t seen a repeat division champion since 2004, so it won’t be surprising that the Eagles don’t finish in first place, but it would be a complete shock if they were to finish in last place.
Record 2019: 13-3
Odds of winning NFC West: +100
After watching the 49ers make it all the way to the Super Bowl in 2019, you might be wondering why they are ranked fourth on this list, and the answer to that question mostly relates to the fact that they play in the most difficult. in football. The NFC West is so busy that the 49ers could finish first or last, and neither result would come as a surprise. One interesting thing to watch with the 49ers will be how they play in the division. Although they were 5-1 last season against the NFC West teams, three of those five wins came from under five points (another win – against Arizona – came from 10 points, but it is misleading, as the 49ers were actually behind (40 seconds to play). NFC West is going to be a dog fight, which is a big reason the 49ers only have money to win it.
3. Patriots
Record 2019: 12-4
Chances of winning AFC Est: +125
For the first time in nearly two decades, the Patriots aren’t the big favorites to win the AFC East. However, don’t feel bad for them as they are still the co-favorites to win the division, according to punters in Vegas. At +125, the Patriots have the same odds as the Bills, which tells you everything you need to know about the respect punters have for New England. The Patriots have yet to name a starting quarterback, eight players have retired for the season and somehow still have the best chance of winning the division. Despite the friendly odds, the Patriots appear vulnerable, and although they have dominated the division for most of Bill Belichick’s era, every other team in the division has improved enough that it isn’t completely surprising to see New England fall. in last place for the first time since 2000, which was Belichick’s first year with the team.
Record 2019: 13-3
Odds of winning NFC North: +140
After going 13-3 last season and reaching the NFC title game, it felt like the Packers might just be a player or two away from a potential Super Bowl run, but it’s almost like they go out of their way to NOT add these players. For one thing, they didn’t write any assists for Aaron Rodgers in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, which you’ve probably heard of. Also, the help they gave the wide receiver (Devin Funchess) didn’t help much as he decided not to make the season. NFC North feels like the only division this year any team could win, so it wouldn’t be totally shocking to see the Packers drop from 13-3 to last place.
Record 2019: 10-6
Chances of winning AFC Sud: +300
If Bill O’Brien has proven one thing in recent years, it’s that he has no idea what he does as CEO. In every offseason, it looks like O’Brien, the general manager, seems to be doing at least one move that makes things harder for O’Brien, the head coach. This year that decision was to cast the Texans’ best offensive player (DeAndre Hopkins). Giving up your best offensive player is never a good idea, but it’s especially not a good idea in a year when your two main division rivals (Indianapolis and Tennessee) have both improved. To finish in last place, the Texans would have to finish behind Jacksonville, which seems unlikely, but you know what, we’ve seen O’Brien go from first to worst once in his career (2016 to 2017), we don’t so probably should not rule out the possibility of this happening again.
At +300, the Texans have the worst chance of winning a division of any team that won their division last year.
