Quarterbacks have generated a year of dramatic lifts and falls in the rankings of Football Outsiders teams based on their under-25 talent. With public pressure on teams to start their rookie passer in Week 1 – or at least as soon as their fictional veterans lose a few games – it’s no wonder players like Baker Mayfield can tip over ranking their teams of 10 or more. spots once they’ve racked up more than their few hundred freshman pass attempts.
After another sort of regression, one of those players has propelled his team to No. 1 for 2020. Despite their disappointing playoff outings over the past two seasons, they are still in better shape than defending champion Kansas City. Chiefs to take trips to the Super Bowl over the next few seasons.
These ratings not only take into account talent under 25, but also the value and length of current contracts of those players. This will push teams with productive players who have several more years to sign inexpensive rookie contracts, and reduce teams that have already had, or will soon have to, pay for their young, experienced talent.
Head here for more information on our ranking methodology, and go here for more information on some of the metrics we benchmark throughout. You can read more about these and other Football Outsiders stats in this article, in the Football Outsiders glossary, or in the new Football Outsiders Almanac for 2020.
Here are our rankings for this season. All ages are as of September 1, 2020. “Top notch” players are critical assets that teams will likely derive their greatest value from in the future. Players are considered “graduates” if they are 25 years old. Read the full file from 1 to 32 or navigate to your favorite team by clicking a link here:
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | INDIANA
JAX | KC | LAKE | LAR | LV | MIA | MY
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Ranking 2019: 25
First-rate players: Lamar Jackson, QB; Marlon Humphrey, CB; Orlando Brown, RT; Mark Andrews, TE; Marquise Brown, WR
Notable graduated players: Bradley Bozeman, LG; Chuck Clark, SS; Gus Edwards, RB
Football Outsiders research has shown quarterbacks tend to make their biggest performance jumps from year one to year two, but Lamar Jackson’s second breakthrough was the Bob Beamon of those.
As a rookie, Jackson was the product of a system designed to showcase his strengths and avoid his weaknesses. He was an inefficient passer with a 58% success rate and -9.2% DVOA, but he only threw 23 passes per game. In 2019, Jackson became the kind of quarterback who can carry a franchise regardless of his system or other issues. His pass rates soared to 66% completion and 34.9% DVOA. His rushing efficiency fell from -27.2% to 20.5% DVOA thanks largely to a reduction from 12 to nine fumbles despite eight more starts – Jackson appears to have developed a knack for avoiding big hits even when he cuts towards midfield and even when defenders seem to be taking the right angle to attack him. Overall, Jackson led the position with an 81.8 QBR and was named NFL MVP.
But the Ravens don’t need Jackson to solve all of their problems. They continue to use a system that takes advantage of Jackson’s talents, but they’ve also amassed exceptional young depth on both sides of the ball. Jackson’s favorite target – Mark Andrews – came from his same draft class of 2018. The third-round tight end was seventh with 123 DYAR at a position whose efficiency leaders tend to be more experienced veterans and made teammate and compatriot Hayden Hurst stretch in a trade with the Falcons. Jackson rarely needed to open the offense beyond his running game and tight goals, but 2019 first round Marquise Brown still stretched the field with more than a fifth of her catches on passes thrown 20 meters or more in the air. Miles Boykin can do the same and is also expected to contribute more in the red zone in 2020 with his exceptional 6-foot-4, 220-pound height and jumping ability. Third-round wide receiver Devin Duvernay completes Brown and Boykin with the speed of his lunge, and second-round running back JK Dobbins is set to seamlessly replace an aging Mark Ingram in 2021 when Ingram’s contract increases or in 2022 when ‘he expires. Finally, right tackle Orlando Brown was one of five Baltimore linemen with 500 or more shots and a block rate of 1.5% or better. His development into a Pro Bowl blocker should help the team survive the loss of future retired Hall of Fame Marshal Yanda.
Neither Jaylon Ferguson (3 p.m.) nor Tyus Bowser, 25, have come to fully replace Za’Darius Smith (66), who left for the Packers in 2019 in free agency. But the Ravens maintained a first-three pass defense thanks in large part to excellent coverage anchored by All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey’s 67% cover hit rate and 5.0 yards allowed per target were the top six among positional qualifiers, ahead of even defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore (57%, 6.4). If the Ravens had a weakness in 2019, it was on defense. But the team likely made up for that shortfall with their first and third round draft picks from linebackers Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison, the former of which has the speed and athleticism to excel in coverage and play all three tries. The Ravens have so many young talents that they could have fought for the top spot in this table even without Jackson under center.
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