It’s the day of the MLB trade deadline, usually a day of anticipation, and hopefully many rotations and trades before the 4pm ET deadline arrives on August 31st. We’ve already seen half a dozen interesting deals, albeit no blockbusters. This is not necessarily a surprise given the main problems affecting the commercial market this year:
1. With the expanded playoffs and shortened season, many teams are still in the game, limiting the number of obvious vendors.
2. Teams are reluctant to hire additional payroll in a season in which they will lose money.
3. You can only trade players from the team’s 60 man eligibility list, so most of the Class A types that are often in these exchanges are ineligible (which is why many of the exchanges so far have included players to be named later) .
What could happen on Monday? Buster Olney told Sunday Night Baseball that there is a growing expectation that there will be a flurry of deals, even given the financial woes. Here are some key questions, voices and needs.
What has happened so far?
We’ve had a few deals that might be labeled as B-level exchanges, even though they are sometimes the ones paying huge dividends in October. Think about last season, when the Nationals acquired Daniel Hudson, who ended up saving four games in the postseason and finished Game 7 of the World Series.
• The Padres have acquired reliever Trevor Rosenthal from the Royals, first baseman Mitch Moreland from the Red Sox and catchers Jason Castro from the Angels and Austin Nola from the Mariners. With Kirby Yates injured and Drew Pomeranz just activated out of the IL, the Padres clashed late and Rosenthal pitched well for the Royals with 21 K in 13 innings, a surprise after his disastrous 2019. With Eric Hosmer stuck at starting base, Moreland should take over DH duties against right-handed pitchers. Padres DH weren’t that bad – 13th in the majors in OPS – but Moreland had burned the ball for the Red Sox with a .328 / .430 / .736 line. Padres hunters strike .136.
• A improved to second base or DH, tipping Franklin Barreto to the Angels for Tommy La Stella, providing a different look to the Oakland lineup. As have the fourth worst strikeout rate in the majors and La Stella has been the toughest hitter in the majors to cheer on.
• The Cubs have added DH / OF Jose Martinez of the Rays. Martinez has a career average of .319 and .946 OPS against lefties and the Cubs only hit .208 with a .659 OPS against lefties.
• The Blue Jays have acquired starting pitcher Taijuan Walker from the Mariners. Walker won his first start with the Blue Jays, pitching six closing innings on Saturday.
• The Braves acquired southpaw Tommy Milone from the Orioles, with whom the veteran was 1-4 with an ERA of 3.99 and an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio of 31 to 4 in 29 ”innings. On Sunday he was shaken on his Braves debut, giving up seven runs and two home runs in 2 ”innings.
• Then we have the other rescue operations: Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree from the Red Sox to the Phillies, and Mychal Givens from the Orioles to the Rockies.
OK, who are some of the big names that might be available?
Like any business deadline, acquiring a top-spinning starter is the holy grail for a CEO. As always: good luck. The options seem even more limited than normal.
• Rangers RHP Lance Lynn. Olney suggested there is a growing belief among executives that Lynn will be swapped. The 33-year veteran has been one of the league’s top starters for the past two seasons and is 4-1 with an ERA of 1.93 while keeping batters at a batting average of 0.165. OK, it won’t continue – see that .198 BABIP? – but Lynn is a workhorse that lacks bats. He signed up until 2021, so there’s added value. There should be a lot of interest from Twins, Padres, White Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, Braves and A’s. Maybe the Dodgers too, who don’t actually have a rotation hole, but Lynn would fit well behind Walker Buehler and take the pressure off Clayton Kershaw in October. Rookie Dustin May has an ERA of 2.83 but hasn’t lost bats, only 5.9Ks for nine innings, so maybe he’s more of a bullpen guy in the postseason. With Mike Minor as free agent, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles pitching badly and Corey Kluber injured, swapping Lynn means Rangers will once again be looking to rebuild their rotation for 2021, but this feels like a franchise stuck in the mud.
• Mike Clevinger, RHP of Cleveland. He may be less likely to be treated than Lynn, but on Sunday night the buzz got louder. Cleveland needs offense and may feel he has enough rotation depth with Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, and Triston McKenzie. Clevinger still has two more years in control of the team, which means that trading will be expensive for him, but keep in mind that the team has been really offended by him (and by Plesac) for violating COVID-19 protocols. Given the pay raise he’ll get next year, however, he’ll be a commercial candidate in the off-season, so Cleveland could take care of that now if teams can meet what the Indians want in return. But this team can ride that rotation for a deep run in the playoffs, even with a shoddy offense, so Cleveland’s best bet to end that World Series drought – 1948, folks – probably includes keeping Clevinger. The Dodgers might call here too – remember, they did astounding deals in 2017 (Yu Darvish) and 2018 (Manny Machado).
• Reds RHP Trevor Bauer. He’s a free agent this offseason and the Reds are currently out of the playoffs, but they’re not that far out, and they moved all-in for 2020, making it unlikely they would give up on the season by dealing with Bauer. Even if the Reds come in as eighth seed, they could overheat in October with Bauer, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo in the rotation.
Who else is out there?
• Giants RHP Kevin Gausman could be the best of the rest of the starting pitchers. He is 1-2 with an ERA of 4.54 but has a FIP of 3.31 and 48 K with only eight walks in 35 ”innings. He might fit in with the Braves, who may still be looking for some rotation help even after acquiring Milone, but remember that Gausman was so bad with the Braves last season that they released him. Another option could be Dylan Bundy, who was very good in his first season with the Angels (2.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP).
• If Rangers swap Lynn, they might move Joey Gallo too, like ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported. Gallo had a huge midseason in 2019 before injury, but his first month of 2020 was more like the pre-2019 Gallo: lots of power and walking but not enough other hits. It hits .183 / .336 / .423 with seven home runs. Gallo has two more years of team control and any team would like to have his 2019 production (plus he was a great defender in the right field). Cleveland could certainly use an outfielder (a pathetic collective .186 / .283 / .289 from their outfielders), and the Cardinals (.211 / .302 / .392), Marlins (.216 / .305 / .330) and, surprisingly , the Twins (.224 / .296 / .406) may use an update.
• The most interesting “sold” team may now be the Diamondbacks, languishing in last place in the NL West and ahead only of the Pirates and Nationals in all of NL. Robbie Ray is having an abysmal year (31 walks and an ERA of 7.84 in 31 innings) and is a pending free agent, but he is a powerful southpaw who lacks bats. Maybe a team will bet that a change of scenery will help them. The outfielder Starling Mars could be another fit for Cleveland, and Archie Bradley’s relief has value as a closer or setup guy.
• Will the internationals bet? I’m in 14th place in NL and seven games under .500. Their outstanding free agents include catcher Kurt Suzuki and infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, and outfielder Adam Eaton has a squad option for 2021.
What are some holes that teams might try to fill?
• Bullpen Astros. Houston is 14th in ERA bullpen, but 23rd in bullpen odds of winning added. With Roberto Osuna out for the season, Ryan Pressly is the only healthy veteran relief. Bradley is a fit here.
• Bullpen of the reds. The Reds have a bullpen ERA of 5.23 and are 25th in odds of winning. Bradley fits in here as a prep guy for Raisel Iglesias.
• A’s shortstop Marcus Semien underwent an MRI after experiencing left sore pain, which left Matt Chapman to replace on Saturday, but the MRI did not reveal any serious problems. However, the As don’t really have a backup shortstop on the roster, so maybe they’ll add some kind of utility.
• Rays catcher. They somehow kept it together despite having nine pitchers on the IL. They may have enough depth on the mound, but perhaps they will try to improve behind the plate. Mike Zunino is currently on the IL and the Rays catchers reach .168 / .258 / .346. Suzuki could be a fit here.
• Rotation of the Yankees. Things suddenly looked a little bleak after that doubleheader sweep at the hands of the Mets on Friday, but the Yankees rebounded with three wins in a row, including strong starts from JA Happ on Saturday and rookie Deivi Garcia making his major league debut. Sunday (one unearned run, six K, no walk in six innings). With James Paxton’s health a concern, they’re trying to figure out the rotation behind Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka.
• Third base of Blue Jays. The Jays seem interested in not just sneaking into the playoffs, but hoping to do some damage, hence the Walker trade. They are the last in the majors in OPS in third base. Seattle’s Kyle Seager would be suitable, even if he comes with a big 2021 salary. Maybe Cabrera of the Nationals.
• First Rockies base. I’m 27th in OPS, even with the Coors Field effect. Daniel Murphy started out hot but cooled down a lot. Moreland would have been a nice addition, but there aren’t really any other good options here.
• Reds midfield. Cincinnati had all kinds of outfield options – and now they’re scrambling. Their center-backs – mainly Nick Senzel and Shogo Akiyama – are hitting .183 / .268 / .294. Jackie Bradley Jr. of Boston or Kevin Pillar might work.
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