Liverpool will have little qualms about their sensational 2019/20 Premier League title-winning campaign. But there is a question of how and why the Reds were awarded so few penalties, particularly compared to Manchester United.
For rival fans, it’s easy to be casual and respond to the frequency of penalties awarded to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s team with a knowing and sarcastic response, but it’s worth analyzing. Few would argue that some of their penalties this season have not been soft or questionable, but sheer volume rules out refereeing mistakes or plain luck being the main reason.
With video assistant referee closely examining replays, referees rarely judged referees who made clear and obvious mistakes, or saw enough evidence to decree that one should have been provided. Bruno Fernandes’ penalty shot against Copenhagen was 21st this season in all competitions. No team in the top five European leagues has received more awards.
A total of 14 of these penalties came in the Premier League, a new record in the competition. It is at least double that of any other team apart from Manchester City (11) and Watford (eight). This is a substantial penalty percentage considering most offensive metrics that have rarely been challenged to the top.
They are only seventeen in the top five European leagues for goals scored, behind Sassuolo and Paris Saint-Germain, who have played 11 fewer games after the early disqualification of Ligue 1. United are 21st in shots per game, 19th in average possession, 17th in dribbles completed per game and 66th in fouls won.
Liverpool, by comparison, are fifth in the top five European leagues for goals scored, 12th in shots per game and sixth in average possession. Five Premier League penalties were awarded in 2019/20, eight fewer than United, and 25 were awarded in total during Jurgen Klopp’s 182 Premier League games in charge. But Klopp’s champions were literally the last in terms of fouls won per game, 7.7, of the 98 teams in last season’s top five European leagues. Here lies the first big clue.
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It actually coincides with the German’s previous comments on the honesty of his Liverpool players, in contrast to the criticisms that Mohamed Salah in particular has faced, with some pundits perceiving that the Egyptian goes down easily in the opponent’s area.
“Take a look at the situations in which we were lucky to score goals and you will probably find two situations around the Champions League against [Manchester] City, “the Liverpool manager said in April 2018.
“Look again, look at how many penalties. Tottenham have had more penalties at Anfield than us. We constantly have the ball, we are constantly in the box. But we don’t dive. “
(Image: Photo by Clive Brunskill / Getty Images)
Liverpool were also down in 47th place on completed dribbles per game in the top five European leagues last season, 10.2 compared to 11.7 for their former rivals. Solskjaer’s team tended to be more willing to race against opponents last season. In the Premier League, only Wolverhampton Wanderers attempted more dribbles last season, having recorded 748, 90 more than Liverpool who were 12th in terms of attempted dribbles ( through AS ).
This discrepancy somehow explains the difference in penalties granted, with United being more likely to counterattack and carry the ball into the opponent’s penalty area.
Because in terms of attacking the opposition in other ways, Liverpool were far ahead. The Reds were second in terms of passes into the penalty area last season with 506, 149 more than United (via FBref.com ). They were also second in terms of crosses into the penalty area with 101, almost double United (52) – only Tottenham Hotspur and Norwich City recorded fewer.
Liverpool had 8,490 touches in their third striker in 2019/20, second only to Manchester City and over 1,000 more than United (7,341). They totaled 1,325 touches in the opponent’s penalty area, 335 more than United (990). The underlying statistics, compared to the penalties awarded, are a mystery to data analysts. There is certainly evidence that winning penalties at such a volume is not sustainable in the long run.
For example, Crystal Palace received 21 penalties between 2017 and 2019. But last season, with little change in terms of Roy Hodgson’s gameplan and Wilfried Zaha’s role, they only won three penalties.
On this basis, United will regress to average in the years to come, with their current penalty shootout rate unsustainable. Similarly, Liverpool can hope to achieve more in the future if they continue to dominate to the same extent in their third opponent.
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