Zion Williamson’s rookie season may only have five days left.
Although they were 3.5 games behind the 8-seeded in the West when the NBA season resumed last month, the New Orleans Pelicans were a popular choice to reach the postseason and stage a tantalizing first-round match between Williamson, this season’s No 1 overall choice and four-time MVP LeBron James. However, things didn’t go as planned for the Pelicans and their young star, who saw his limited minutes in early campus actions and was a major defensive problem.
With that in mind, we asked three of our experts to provide their insights into Williamson’s play in the bubble and what it means for the future of the Pelicans, both in the short and long term.
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Sion in Orlando so far
Zion Williamson was supposed to be the main attraction within Walt Disney World for the expected push from the New Orleans Pelicans to a Western Conference playoff spot. On the opening night of the NBA bubble action, the Pelicans were shown on national television, as was most of their games.
And indeed, Williamson was a hot topic, although not always for the reasons the Pelicans or the league were hoping for when the seed match schedule was announced.
Williamson missed 13 days of basketball activity – from July 16 to July 24 while he was out of the bubble to a justified absence and then another four days of quarantine. The Pelicans ‘plan for him was a few minutes ahead – “short bursts” – and keeping him out of the middle of New Orleans’ only back-to-back in the bubble.
New Orleans executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin said every player on the team has a defined plan, and Williamson was impacted by the lack of the three-game scrimmage. When he returned, Williamson looked a bit lazy.
In his first game, against the Utah Jazz, Williamson had 13 points in 15 minutes but did not register a rebound for the first time in his career. He struggled to find his balance in his second game, against the LA Clippers, scoring a minimum of seven points in 14 minutes.
Williamson began looking like himself in his third game, against Memphis, when he had 23 points, seven rebounds and five assists in a win. He continued his attacking wave with 24 out of 10 out of 12 points in just under 22 minutes against the Sacramento Kings.
Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram said having Williamson back in the fold helps make things easier for the team on the offensive side.
“Well, we know what to expect when he’s in training,” Ingram said on Aug.3. “When he’s in formation, he’ll have an immediate impact. He’ll cause so much attention that we have to be ready for the shot. In flight, or ready to make a cut or whatever, because he’s such a willing passerby.”
Williamson has had seven assists in his last two games, the most he has had in two games in his short career. His pass helps unlock another level of the Pelicans attack, and the team’s offensive score was 110.7 when he was on the pitch in their last two games.
The defensive end, in which Williamson has yet to register a lockdown or theft, was another story entirely. – Andrew Lopez
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Zion Williamson goes right to the defender and ends up through contact for the e-1.
The defense of Zion is collapsing
Williamson may be the brightest young star in the NBA, and by entering the bubble, it was clear that the 19-year-old phenom was already good enough to make the Pelicans a legitimate playoff contender. Do you want proof? No five-man lineup in the entire championship has had a better net score than Williamson and his four starting teammates. None.
Before the season resumed, the Pelicans’ starting group had an insane net score of more than -26.3 (points per 100 possessions), better than the 34 NBA formations that shared at least 200 minutes of play.
The Pelicans’ starters were fantastic from the moment Zion made his debut in January, especially in defense, allowing for a ridiculously low 91.6 points for 100 possesses.
But in the bubble, as noted, it was a different story. In the relatively few minutes that Williamson is playing, he seems slower and less committed to defense, and the Pelicans fidget whenever he’s in play.
Here are the receipts:
Before the bubble, with Zion on the ground, the Pelicans had a net score of plus-10.4, which is outstanding. (This included lineups when Williamson was paired with Pelicans reserves.) But when he was off the pitch, they had a net score of minus-3.5.
Now the whole thing has turned upside down. In the bubble, the pelicans are fighting with Zion over it the floor, with an atrocious net score of minus-22.8. It becomes stranger: when there is Zion Street the floor, the pelicans have a net score of plus-6.8.
The effect is particularly noticeable on defense. The biggest problem was the perimeter, where Williamson’s lack of awareness and inconsistent engagement was costly. Pels’ opponents are hitting 45% of their triples when Zion is in play in Orlando, partly because Williamson was an easy target on the sidelines.
Look at these examples.
Again, the statistics support what we can see. With Zion in the game in Orlando, New Orleans didn’t stop anyone, giving up 128.4 points for every 100 possessions. But the Pelicans were stingy when Zion is out, conceding 102.5 points for 100.
Williamson remains one of the best prospects this league has seen in years, of course. But to get his team into the playoffs this season, he needs to start playing better defensively right away. – Kirk Goldsberry
How the Pelicans continue to build around Zion
Zion Williamson’s seven-year watch began last year when the New Orleans Pelicans agreed to trade Anthony Davis with the Los Angeles Lakers and selected Williamson as their top pick in the 2019 draft.
From the Lakers, they received Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and future draft picks, setting the stage for a success that never seemed to materialize after the Pelicans drafted Davis in 2012.
Seven years is the time period between 2019 and when Williamson can leave as an unrestricted free agent, if he follows the usual path of signing an extension. For example, LeBron James was drafted from Cleveland in 2003 and left for Miami in 2010. Similarly, Davis has been in New Orleans for seven years, albeit under slightly different circumstances.
As we’ve seen with both James and Davis, making the playoffs isn’t enough for some superstars. They want to go where they can team up and compete for championships. It is the Pelicans’ job to make it happen in New Orleans.
This offseason will involve several key steps: the first step will be to bring Ingram back when she arrives at limited free agency on October 18th. Whether they want to pay it in full or not, the 22-year-old All-Star is most likely going to get that kind of deal, presumably in New Orleans.
Step 2 will be to make a decision about the future of Jrue Holiday. The Pelicans could discuss an extension with him, or they could trade him a year or two before he reaches free agency (Holiday has a player option in 2021). Aside from the young players with rookie contracts, the 30-year-old guard is the Pelicans’ best business asset, and they shouldn’t risk letting him walk for nothing.
The third decision concerns the rookie extensions for Ball and Hart. If the Pelicans can both sign up for team-friendly deals that provide flexibility to the salary cap for 2021-22 and future years, they should. If not, they can wait and let things unfold for another year.
Fourth, they must determine the value of their copious project resources and how to distribute them. Including their own and two of the Lakers, the Pelicans have nine first-round picks (and a potential swap of choices) over the next seven years, not to mention ten second-round picks over the next four years.
How patient will they be? Will they decide to design and develop most of those choices? Or will they combine some of them into a successful trade or series of exchanges?
Remember that four-year rookie contracts are below market value and will allow Pelicans to keep their payrolls in check as their young stars get more expensive.
Of course, with the Pelicans already contending in the playoffs, they will be tempted to shop for the next disgruntled All-Star to ask out. Could it be a player like Bradley Beal or Victor Oladipo?
This would reverse the role of the Pelicans, putting them on the opposite side of the table since Davis forcibly made his way out of New Orleans.
Regardless, the Pelicans have a lot of good options and a lot at stake this offseason and the next few years as they try to keep Williamson healthy and happy. – Bobby Marks
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