Editor’s Note: Webb Simpson retired from the BMW championship on Tuesday to rest.
The Northern Trust final round was none other than a Dustin Johnson coronation ceremony.
There has never been a time in the past three days when he didn’t feel like he had complete control on the way to an 11-shot win in the first FedEx Cup playoff event.
Next, we will head to Olympia Fields near Chicago for the BMW championship. With the field reduced from 125 players to 70 this week, it will look more like an uncut WGC event this week.
This will be the first time that a PGA Tour event has been held in the field since 2003, the year in which Jim Furyk won the US Open.
The course
Olympia Fields measure just over 7,300 yards for a par 70, so it’s unlikely we’ll see the super-low scores we saw last week on this course.
We haven’t seen the pitch host the top pros in a while, but if Furyk has won here, it gives us a decent idea of what will be in demand this week.
The rough is unlikely to be at the level of the US Open, but a prize will likely be given to accuracy anyway. Water will be in play on about half of the holes, so accuracy will be needed both from the tee and with the approach play to avoid obstacles.
Favorites
No surprise after last week’s performance, but DJ opened as the +800 favorite. It’s actually not even that bad as a number. We have seen in the playoffs where players have achieved a streak and won consecutive events, in particular Bryson DeChambeau in 2018, Billy Horschel in 2014 and Rory McIlroy in 2012. Johnson is also tied with Rory for the most FedEx Cup wins with five now.
Jon Rahm he’s next in line at +1000 and played well last week, finishing sixth. DeChambeau and Justin thomas are next to +1400.
Thomas has really been hit and miss for the past couple of months with a WGC event win and playoff defeat Collin Morikawa at Muirfield Village. But his other three starts all ended out of the top 15. DeChambeau will fall in love this week after winning the 2015 US Amateur on this course. But he has also struggled with consistency in recent weeks, winning in Detroit and playing well at the PGA Championship, only to skip the cut at TPC Boston last week where he had won just two years earlier.
McIlroy and Xander Schauffele I’m in the next place at +1800. This is the highest number we’ve seen on Rory in a long time, but her game is in a weird situation. He’s made all seven of his cuts since the reboot, but he didn’t make it into the top 10 and didn’t really threaten to contend. He was one of the most outspoken players about the lack of fanless atmosphere together Tiger Woods. His play was also remarkably flat.
I will start my card in this next interval with Webb Simpson to +2000 on Bet365. Simpson has been playing well in recent weeks, finishing sixth last week and third at Wyndham. I also like playing him in courses where Furyk has been successful because at the moment I see Simpson in that kind of role. He doesn’t have the power of other top players, but the precision, iron play, and short game are able to keep him up to date with the elites just like Furyk in his heyday. They have also won both in Las Vegas and Harbor Town, and while Furyk has never won at Sawgrass like Webb, he has had plenty of success, finishing in the top 5 on five occasions.
Then I also go with Daniel Berger to +2200 on Bet365. Berger has played like anyone else in recent months, collecting his fourth place in the top-3 in his last six starts. Usually, players ride in good shape in playoff events and Berger has been as hot as anyone else.
[Bet Daniel Berger now at bet365. NJ only.]
The Midtier
With two guys in the 2000s, my card is usually gone, but I’ll make room for a play in here Russell Henley to +8000 on Bet365.
Henley has finished in the top 10 for the past two weeks and the approach play has been fantastic for months. His putter has finally changed over the past couple of weeks, leading to better results.
[Bet Russell Henley now at bet365. NJ only.]
The Longshots
No long term outrights for me this week. There were no triple-digit top 5 players last week as the cream continues to rise in the playoffs.
But as for the first 10 or 20 reproductions, I guess Cameron Smith will be very popular this week. He’s in that 150/1 range and last week he finished third in number of hits earned: approach. Normal solid short game was just mediocre, but he managed to finish 18th. If the putting can synchronize with the irons this week, he is ready for a high result.
Kevin Na is Brendan Steele it’s also worth a look in that 175/1 range. The hitting ball was solid for both of them, but the short game was missing. If this sounds more like a precision track than a bomb-and-gouge feast, then both could have a decent finish.
The BMW Card
- Webb Simpson +2000 (1.65 units)
- Daniel Berger +2200 (1,5 units)
- Russell Henley +8000 (.41 units)
Total stake: 3.56 units
