Welcome to what should be one of the craziest lists of the year. There are four games to choose from, starting with Raptors vs. the Nuggets at 1:30 PM ET, but none of these teams have anything to play for.
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Point Guard
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Kendrick Nunn, MIA @ IND, $ 5,200 – I expect most of the teams to be quite conservative with their rotations today. With that in mind, I’m fine with the fading of most expensive whiteboard readers.
The Heat are definitely a team worth being exposed to. They released an extensive injury report, listing Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, and Bam Adebayo as out and Andre Iguodala, Derrick Jones Jr., and Jae Crowder as questionable. If all those players are eventually banned, he will leave the Heat with only nine active players.
This could force Nunn into a large workload. He increased his utilization rate by + 4.8% with Butler, Dragic and Adebayo off the pitch this season, averaging DKFP 1.11 per minute.
Other options – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($ 7,600)
Value
TJ McConnell, IND vs MIA, $ 4,200 – McConnell is almost always productive when given the chance to play, and it was no different in Orlando. It averages DKFP 1.18 per minute on reboot and should see a good handful of minutes for the Pacers today. They’ve already banned Victor Oladipo, TJ Warren, and Myles Turner, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see more players banned before the tip.
Other options – PJ Dozier ($ 4,100), Monte Morris ($ 4,800)
Armed guard
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James Harden, HOU v PHI, $ 11,500 – Harden is one of the only true stallions I’m considering today. The Rockets will play without Russell Westbrook, which means Harden should carry an insane workload when on the pitch. He increased his utilization rate by + 7.6% with Westbrook off the pitch this season, averaging DKFP 1.73 per minute.
Harden will almost certainly be playing a reduced workload today, but he could still be the highest-scoring player on the list if he saw 25 minutes. There should be plenty of value options to choose from, so blocking Harden’s raw points will have value even if he doesn’t get his usual 60 fancy points.
Other options – Tyler Herro ($ 5,700)
Value
Furkan Korkmaz, PHI @ HOU, $ 3900 – The 76ers are another team that should deliver value on today’s list. Joel Embiid is currently listed as questionable and it would be somewhat surprising to see him dressed up after leaving his last game early with injury. Guys like Tobias Harris, Al Horford and Josh Richardson could also spend the evening.
If this happens, expect Korkmaz to carry a large workload. He averages 0.81 DraftKings points per minute in Orlando, so he doesn’t have much playing time to potentially return value.
Other options – Alec Burks ($ 5,000), Deonte Burton ($ 3,000)
Small forward
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Duncan Robinson, MIA @ IND, $ 5,300 – Robinson is one of the most notable RPGs in the NBA, but that doesn’t always translate into huge fantasy value. That said, it has increased its output to 0.92 DKFP per minute inside the bubble and should see a good number of minutes for short-range heat.
Other options – Tobias Harris ($ 8,100)
Value
Editor’s Note: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam have been excluded from today’s game against the Nuggets.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, TOR vs. DEN, $ 4,000 – The Raptors have recently limited minutes for most of their key role players, and it looks unlikely that will change in the season finale. Hollis-Jefferson played at least 24.8 minutes in consecutive games and scored at least 23.75 DraftKings points in both games. He’s averaging 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s able to leverage a little more time.
Other options – Solomon Hill ($ 3,800), Doug McDermott ($ 3,900)
Direct power
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Kelly Olynyk, MIA @ IND, $ 5,500 – Olynyk has been fantastic fantasy value so far in the bubble. He surpassed salary-based scoring expectations in six of his first seven games, and the only exception was when he was limited to just 18.7 minutes. He may be looking at another limited workload, but the heat may have no choice but to lean on him a little heavier given their current injury situation.
Other options – Darius Bazley ($ 5,400), Jerami Grant ($ 5,500)
Value
Meyers Leonard, MIA @ IND, $ 3,300 – If you’re looking to go a little less with the Heat, consider Leonard. It has been a solid fantasy option this season, averaging 0.85 DraftKings points per minute, and could be close to 30 minutes in this competition.
Other options – JaKarr Sampson ($ 3,800), Alize Johnson ($ 3,500)
Center
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Chris Boucher, TOR vs. DEN, $ 5,300 – Boucher has had a chance to play a few more minutes recently and has taken full advantage of it. He scored at least 39.75 DraftKings points in consecutive games, including 52.75 DraftKings points two games ago against the Bucks. It’s been priced a bit, but it shouldn’t be hard to fit regardless.
Other options – Nikola Jokic ($ 9,400)
Value
Chris Silva, MIA @ IND, $ 3,500 – Last but not least for the Heat is Silva, who may be the best value of the group. He’s averaged DKFP 1.27 per minute this season, so he should no doubt see enough playing time to pay his minimum wage.
Other options – Jeff Green ($ 4,900), TJ Leaf ($ 3,000)
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I am a promoter of DraftKings and I am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and can sometimes play on my personal account in the games I offer recommendations on. Although I have expressed my personal opinion on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the point of view of DraftKings and I can also field different players and strategies than the ones I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
