Ashley Landis / Associated Press
“This stings, for sure …”
This was the reaction of Philadelphia 76ers coach Brett Brown to the news of Ben Simmons’ partially sprained knee, which he sustained in Wednesday 107-98 victory over the Washington Wizards, according to ESPN’s Tim Bontemps.
Brown’s reaction is understandable. The postseason is in less than two weeks. And since the beginning of his career in 2017-18, Simmons has been Philadelphia’s leader in victories over the replacement player.
His average career of 16.4 points, 8.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists is unprecedented. This season alone, lead the NBA in thefts per game. And it is on track to form an All-Defensive team.
Ringer’s Dan Devine even presented a discussion about the defender of the year for him:
“Simmons was a persistent threat, leading the league in thefts while finishing second in deflections and third in loose balls recovered. He continued to do his damage even from a variety of angles: for the third consecutive season, according to versatility metrics Defensive compiled of Krishna Narsu of Nylon Calculus and Andrew Patton of The BBall Index, he spent at least 15 percent of his time on the plane defending positions 1, 2, 3 and 4, also seeing his fair share of duty against the big names. nugget from searches by Narsu and Patton: Simmons spends more time than any other All-Star protecting the No. 1 options of the opposing teams.) “
That defensive versatility was crucial for a Sixers team that ranked in the 76th percentile in points awarded for 100 possessions when Simmons was on the floor. And now, it may be necessary to understand how to defend crimes no. 4 or n. 6 of the Boston Celtics or Miami Heat, respectively, in a series of playoffs without him.
Bontemps tweeted that the “Sixers will have a better idea of what a timeline for Ben Simmons could be in the next 24 hours, “but a matter of weeks seems more likely than day to day. This could lead to Philadelphia in the first round.
The current Basketball Reference playoff odds report has the 76ers facing the Celtics, a team with more direction and positional versatility than most. Not having Simmons to spend time on Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward could affect their chances of advancing.
And a first-round exit could be difficult for Brown to overcome.
“It was only assumed that Brett would be fired if they didn’t do something special [in the 2019 playoffs]”Said Ryen Russillo on the Podcast by Bill Simmons. “And then, it was like, ‘Oh wow. They kept it.’ And now I’m telling you that the same things were filmed again. “
Lynne Sladky / Associated Press
Not having Simmons could shake Brown, but few things in life are as tenuous as job security for NBA coaches. Even without Simmons, a beating at the hands of the Celtics or Heat (who have their star wing in Jimmy Butler) would no doubt fuel speculation about Brown’s future.
None of this is a foregone conclusion, though. The Sixers are over 1.8 points per 100 possessions when Simmons and Joel Embiid are both on the floor. I’m over-12.2 when Embiid plays without Simmons.
It is worth noting that this is a new trend. Despite popular narratives regarding the friction on the field between the two stars, Philadelphia has historically been at its best when both play.
But if somehow everything fell into place as the 76ers worked harder on Embiid in the coming weeks, the future that might seem less secure is Simmons’.
This season has provided some evidence of this possibility:
- Embiid with Simmons above ground: 31.6 points, 15.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists for 75 possessions
- Embiid with Simmons on the floor: 25.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists for 75 possessions
Imagine a deep playoff with Embiid putting up such numbers and Simmons on the bench. How could the front office not entertain the idea of testing the commercial market?
Matt Slocum / Associated Press
Simmons brings a unique combination of size and talent that a lot of teams across the league would want. If Philadelphia replaces it with multiple floor spacers that don’t dominate the ball, it could unlock another level of play for Embiid.
The common and valid refutation for those who ask for the breakup of this duo is: “Well, they have never been surrounded by the right support cast”.
With even an elite shooter like JJ Redick in training, Simmons-Embiid’s net rating has skyrocketed. If the goal is to keep the top two in position, such a teammate should be the goal.
The problem is that the Sixers don’t have much flexibility at the moment.
Tobias Harris (123rd in the plus / minus box) is set to average $ 37.2 million per season until 2023-24. Al Horford (34 years and 55th in the plus / minus box) is on the books for an average of 27 million dollars until 2022-23, although only 14.5 million dollars are guaranteed in the last year.
Good luck in winning a trade with one of those contracts involved.
The players who can return value in a deal are Simmons and Embiid. The latter will now have the opportunity to show its value as the undisputed alpha for the 76ers.
The former may only be able to see the next few weeks that could affect the future of the organization.
Unless otherwise specified, all statistics have been kindly provided by Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass and PBP Stats.
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