If all goes according to plan, the NBA free agency will officially begin on October 18th.
This is, Self The league revenue can be properly projected and the salary cap can be adjusted by then, free agency could start in about two months.
Two months is a long time, but it looks like no length of time could have stopped the rumor mill from sending the Phoenix fan base into a frenzy on Monday morning. Athletic’s Shams Charania reported that Phoenix could be one of at least three teams interested in heavily pursuing Raptors guard Fred VanVleet, along with New York and Detroit.
This column is not about the merits of adding VanVleet to a backcourt by Devin Booker and Ricky Rubio. This is a separate conversation. But here’s why this particular item is important:
- The Suns can create up to ~ 24 million coverage space, as our Dave King noted the other day. This would result in the waiver of the rights to Saric, Baynes, Carter and even the tenth overall pick, plus some other players on the bench. It’s a good business.
- A maximum contract for Fred VanVleet starts at $ 27.3 million in year 1.
Do you see the problem? Even though Phoenix was interested in VanVleet, there’s only one sensible way to clear the necessary limit: Kelly Oubre Jr. has to go. And not just in a regular exchange that offers fair value in Phoenix, but in a clearing dump, just like TJ Warren’s summer 2019 trade.
Again, this business with VanVleet is just a rumor. But it exemplifies a more important point that was really my main takeout yesterday:
The season open on Kelly Oubre has officially begun.
That’s not quite right, is it? The idea that the man who coined the term “Valley Boyz,” the one who played a pivotal role in revitalizing the culture of a destroyed organization over the past 18 months, would now find himself first on the cutting board seems a little bit. .. unnecessarily cruel.
Still, the NBA is a business. And while I want it to be absolutely clear that I’m not necessarily advocating an Oubre exchange, it’s undeniable that in many team building scenarios, Oubre doesn’t have a future with Phoenix.
If the Suns ultimately want to build a league team around Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, they may find themselves wanting to swing for a third star. And they have two ways to get there: free agency and trade. Free agency that we have already covered. If the Suns want to aim for a high-level FA, they have to cut costs and on this particular list, that means Oubre.
But even in the commercial market, any trade for a star would require medium-sized contracts to be sent to another team to match salaries. This is why expiring contracts are so valuable in the NBA, because without them trading couldn’t happen. And next year, the Suns will only have one contract expiring: Kelly Oubre and her $ 14.4 million salary.
Sure, the Suns might try to move Ricky Rubio (two years remaining, at $ 17 million / year) instead. But Oubre, a 24-year-old from a record 18.7 PPG campaign, is arguably more valuable. And beyond that, depth needs to be considered. Without Oubre, the Suns still have a thriving Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson. Without Rubio, they are back to contending with the main problem that caused a 19-win season just a year ago.
I think I know what you mean. Sam, there is another way to get that third star! What if Kelly Oubre was that third star?
Maybe it is! Stranger things have certainly happened in the past. But even if he were, both the Suns and Oubre must be on the same page as to what his future is in this organization. If you commit to him with a long-term extension, you are putting yourself in the precarious position of offering over $ 25 million / year to a player who has not yet proven that they are of that stature, simply for security reasons. Sometimes this resolves and you get stuck on a core worthy of competing for a championship.
But often times it backfires and you find yourself stuck with players like Tobias Harris or Andrew Wiggins, who don’t move the needle towards playoff success and who ultimately paralyze growth by cutting roster flexibility.
If the Suns and Oubre are not on the same page, or if Oubre feels the slightest threat from Johnson / Bridges, the temptation to look for a business partner becomes even stronger. Because at this moment Oubre has a commercial value. Six months into the next season, he won’t have much left. And in a full year, he could have left the free agency unrestricted for nothing.
To reiterate, the takeaway here is not “KELLY OUBRE MUST GO NOW”. As the founder of the Valley Boyz movement, I like to think that Oubre has earned more respect than that.
But it’s simply a reminder that, when you start to see more voices around a team that clearly has positive momentum, all actions have consequences. So whether it’s discussing the attitude of a player like VanVleet, or Victor Oladipo, or Bradley Beal, or a million other names … there is actually only one current Sun whose fate you are condemning in the process.
