Steve Dykes / Getty Images
Scouts predicted last summer that the 2020 NBA draft would not have obvious star power, but consensus recruiting number 1 James Wiseman was one of the few prospects mentioned as a candidate to pick first. Then a week into college basketball season, was found unsuitable for Memphis.
Some evaluators still saw quite a bit of talent from the limited college reps. “What did he get against Oregon? Fourteen points and 12 rebounds, and he didn’t even play the first half,” said a scout willing to buy Wiseman’s natural gifts.
Others had questions they were waiting for him to answer, and he couldn’t go through just three games. “Buyer beware,” said another executive. “It’s very mediocre.”
NBA front offices now have to rely on previous scouting and old tapes from AAU, FIBA, McDonald’s All-American Game, Jordan Brand Classic, and Nike Hoop Summit. The ability to not perform live workouts during a shortened predraft process means even more uncertainty as to where Wiseman stands in development.
Steve Dykes / Getty Images
How soon is too early to draw up a center?
The NBA continues to evolve. In 2013-14, 27 teams averaged over 10 post-ups per game. Last season, only 10 teams averaged it. Few crimes are committed through the centers, unless that center is a high level creator or passerby.
Will it be Wiseman? If not, is it worth selecting it from the top five (above guards and attackers), where it has long been assumed it will go?
It is also worth noting that a handful of lottery teams are already invested in the centers. While drawing the best player available is common mindset and practice, there is a fear of repeating the Orlando Magic mistake when they used choice # 1. 6 on Mohamed Bamba, just for him as a backup behind Nikola Vucevic and miss the important reps for development.
Unlike some big names who we were recently taken early – Jaren Jackson Jr., Marvin Bagley III, Jonathan Isaac, Zach Collins, Wendell Carter Jr. – Wiseman can only play one position. It is a true center, lacking the skills or the perimeter movement to play forward as well. Teams only that could use an update to 5 presumably will consider Wiseman, which would limit his possible suitors–even more so if Andre Drummond opts for 2020-21 and the Cleveland Cavaliers plan to sign him again in the long term.
And why would the Golden State Warriors use a better choice on a center when it would be the fourth or fifth option? Couldn’t they sign a relatively inexpensive free agent to do what Wiseman would have been asked to (end) in an offensive run through his guards, wings and on?
Teams looking for talent only – Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards – may not care as much about a center’s editorial staff. But how high it’s worth selecting depends on your level of confidence in developing your skills.
Joe Murphy / Getty Images
How safe should teams be in its development?
Wiseman’s draw comes from his spectacular physical profile: 7’1 “, 240 lbs, 7’6” wingspan. Also, it can jump. NBA overtime WHO measured similarly before their drafts included Joel Embiid (7’0 “, 240 lbs, 7’5” WS), Dwight Howard (6’10¼ “, 240 lbs, 7’4½” WS), DeAndre Jordan (6 ’11 “, 250 lbs, 7’6” WS) and Hassan Whiteside (6’11½ “, 227 lbs, 7’7” WS), according to NBA.com.
Where will Wiseman fall on that spectrum of big, strong and long centers? It will depend on the development of her abilities and, at this stage, she doesn’t seem close to where Embiid was at the same age.
Wiseman’s value is fueled by his physical tools and bouncing to pick up easy baskets. Of his 20 field goals scored in Memphis, 17 came from transitions, putbacks, cuts or rolls, according to Synergy Sports. He scored an assist in 69 minutes.
He is currently a rim runner and finisher, and that’s okay, because with his size and rebound, he should continue to be a high percentage target and a cleaner around the basket. But that won’t be enough to justify the overall value of the top five.
How much can and will it improve the creation, shooting and passing of the shot?
During high school, he enjoyed trying to prove he could backtrack and take down three. He is capable, but he has no particular skills. How reliable will your sweater be in the prime of life? How hard will it be as cover will it work one-on-one from the elbows and short corners? Will he learn to draw double teams and hit the open man?
To date, between his lack of sheen and the way the NBA has changed, he doesn’t make plans as the type of scorer coaches will be. He’ll set up screens and dive, run across the floor and put back the wrong shots, but the guards won’t feed him the ball to create, and he won’t attempt or hit many outside shots early in his career.
Looking at the major centers of the league, each of them has a distinguishable strength outside of size and athleticism. Embiid, LaMarcus Aldridge, Anthony Davis, Vucevic and Deandre Ayton have their favorite games. Nikola Jokic adds a special direction. Karl-Anthony Towns has his three balls. Montrezl Harrell carries unbearable energy. The versatility of Bam Adebayo checks the boxes across the board.
What can Wiseman’s signature be? Whiteside and Rudy Gobert don’t have one up front, but they both have earned substantial rewards for their rim protection.
Joe Murphy / Getty Images
Could it be a defensive turning point?
In front of dozens of NBA representatives from across the league last April, Wiseman blocked six shots in the US win at the Nike Hoop Summit, using his massive wingspan to cover airspace and deny drivers. His tools create defensive potential, and becoming an effective protector of the circle is critical to his worth, particularly if the development of his offensive skills dies.
But numbers of saves don’t always amount to an impact on defense, and there’s enough evidence on Wiseman that shows questionable instincts and fundamentals. His pick-and-roll coverage readings have never been convincing. He is also prone to miss jumps, bite into fakes, or sink to close.
It doesn’t project to be very switchable and opponents will definitely try to move it away from the circle and target it in space.
Wiseman has the physical traits needed to effectively anchor a team’s defense from paint, but he has plenty of room to improve and his value could plummet if he doesn’t.
Motor questions and behavior: legitimate or exaggerated?
Before arriving in Memphis, Wiseman’s drive and intensity had been questioned. You didn’t always feel like he was freaking out. His demeanor is calm, which isn’t necessarily bad, but it could be a turning point for some coaches.
It was a criticism that may have been exaggerated. It is possible that energy is a complete non-issue and that it was just the result of being young or lack of motivation in certain contexts.
But for any scout who had any concerns, Wiseman didn’t have the opportunity to lessen them during his short stint in Memphis.
Karen Pulfer Focht / Associated Press
Wiseman in the Draft
It seems unlikely the Minnesota Timberwolves will see a deal with Towns. The Atlanta Hawks just traded for Clint Capela. Wiseman cannot play with Ayton in Phoenix. And the Cavaliers acquired Drummond, presumably with the intention of trying to keep him. The New York Knicks may also show more interest in grabbing a point guard and developing Mitchell Robinson.
Wiseman will compete for looks with mainly guards and wings: LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Deni Avdija, Killian Hayes, Isaac Okoro and Tyrese Haliburton. Teams with room to add big will also watch Obi Toppin and Onyeka Okongwu.
Wiseman is more physically impressive than both of them, and is about three years younger than Toppin, a defensively struggling top scorer. Meanwhile, Okongwu just averaged 16.2 points and 2.7 blocks with 61.6% shot, and while not as tall (6’9 “) as Wiseman, he appears later in offensive moves, in the defensive impact and in the engine.
Okongwu quickly became number one on my board at the start of the season. Traditional upside laws suggest Wiseman may have more, but whether he unlocks it will depend on his skill development, defensive growth, and level of commitment.
.
