Assuming that nothing goes wrong between now and then, professional basketball will soon return to our television screens. WNBA will begin its season on July 25, while the NBA – the league whose sudden stoppage has sparked a cascade of corresponding arrests in other sports – will resume its season on July 30 at Walt Disney World.
To date, 131 days have passed since the last time the NBA led a regular season game, so you’ll be forgiven for not necessarily remembering the details of where things left off. That’s why we are here. Before the resumption of the NBA season, we want to give you a brief update of the 22 teams that have been invited to Orlando: who they are, where they were when we last saw them, if they have undergone confirmed or reported cases on the coronavirus, what else is changed for them during the four-month hiatus and what we can expect from both during the seeding games and, if they are lucky enough to make it, the playoffs.
[Related: Our NBA Predictions]
We are dividing these 22 teams into three levels: the contenders of the inner circle, the potential crashes of the party and those who seem to be in the running for the race for no particular reason beyond the league who want to maximize the number of games played therefore, revenue earned). We will start below with that last group, made up of the nine teams invited to reboot who have yet to ensure post-season positioning.
Phoenix Suns
26-39, 13th in the West, 6 games back
FiveThirtyEight prediction: <1% playoffs, <1% west, <1% finals
Projected sowing WL: 3-5; 29-44
COVID-19: Two unnamed players (reported)
The Suns face the toughest climbing of any team left to actually get to the playoffs. It’s six games and five points behind the eighth suit Grizzlies, which means they have to collect at least two games on Memphis is pass four more teams in the standings just to get to a potential play-in round, where they would need to win consecutive games to get a post-season spot. They will have to run without the services of the attacker Kelly Oubre, who is in Orlando with the team but will not participate in the restart while concentrating on the remodeling of the torn meniscus that he suffered at the end of February. FiveThirtyEight plans that the Suns will go 3-5 against the seventh hardest seeding game program among the teams invited to restart, leaving them very short of a playoff spot.
San Antonio Spurs
27-36, 12th in the West, 4 games back
FiveThirtyEight prediction: <1% playoffs, <1% west, <1% finals
Projected sowing WL: 2-6; 29-42
COVID-19: No reports or public announcements
San Antonio restarts without any of its two great starting men. LaMarcus Aldridge was shut down after right shoulder surgery, while Trey Lyles underwent an appendectomy and was also declared out for the rest of the season. The Spurs were already facing long odds for the playoffs, but they stretched even further when Aldridge went down. Their defense has not been up to the whole year, which means they should have been dependent on leading teams. This will be much more difficult to do without Aldridge, who supported a unit that checked in only slightly above average. In the absence of him and Lyles, San Antonio will likely have to play much smaller than it typically is this season, and veteran striker Rudy Gay recently indicated that the young players on the team could see a longer run during games. seeding.
Washington Wizards
24-40, 9th in the East, 5.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight prediction: 5% playoffs, <1% east, <1% finals
Projected sowing WL: 2-6; 26-46
COVID-19: Gary Payton Jr. (reported), Thomas Bryant (reported)
The lonely team outside the Eastern playoffs invited to make the trip to Disney, the Wizards will be incredibly short staffed in Orlando. The sniper in charge of free agent Dāvis Bertāns has given up the restart, while All-Star guard Bradley Beal will sit down with a shoulder injury. John Wall also remains sidelined, as he has been for the whole season. Wizards must collect 1.5 games on Magic or two games on Networks to qualify for a potential game round, but they must face a tougher schedule than either of these two teams and they will also be without their three best players. As a result, we expect the Wiz to fall even further behind what they are at the moment.
Sacramento Kings
28-36, 11th in the West, 3.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight prediction: 7% playoffs, <1% west, <1% finals
Projected sowing WL: 3-5; 31-41
COVID-19: Harrison Barnes (announced), Alex Len (reported), Buddy Hield (returned to practice), Jabari Parker (returned to practice)
One of the many teams that closed their practice facility before traveling to Orlando following a positive test for a member of their traveling team, the Kings had more publicly confirmed COVID cases than any other team on restarting from start of testing throughout the league in early July. Some of these players have returned to training, but star guard De’Aaron Fox sprained his ankle during one of those sessions, and the kings announced on Wednesday evening that it would be reevaluated in seven to ten days. Their prospect looks bleak if Fox isn’t 100 percent, despite having to face one of the league’s easiest remaining programs.
Portland Trail blazer
29-37, 9th in the West, 3.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight prediction: 12% playoffs, <1% west, <1% finals
Projected sowing WL: 3-5; 32-42
COVID-19: No reports or public announcements
Portland, more than any other team in the league, benefited from the interruption of the season. When they return to the ground, the Blazers may be without Trevor Ariza, but they will recover both Jusuf Nurkić and Zach Collins. Blazer’s favorite starters in the main court are both ready to return from long-term injuries that had limited Collins to just three games and kept Nurkic out all year round. The push to their list and to the question marks surrounding the other contenders n. 8 it seems that the Blazers would be ready to run in the play-in round, but they have the misfortune to face the fifth most difficult remaining program, with games against the Celtics, the Rockets, the Nuggets, the Clippers and the 76ers. They open up against the Grizzlies and close up against severely shortened nets, however, so perhaps their chances of getting through the seeding games are slightly underestimated at just 12 percent.
Memphis Grizzlies
32-33, 8 ° west
FiveThirtyEight prediction: 36% playoff, <1% west, <1% final
Projected sowing WL: 3-5; 35-38 (participant in play-in against NOP)
COVID-19: No reports or public announcements
Before the season came to an abrupt halt, the Grizzlies were the most pleasant surprise of this season. Led by star-studded rookie Ja Morant, the NBA’s youngest team managed to recover from 6-16 starting with the ninth best record in the league from 8 December onwards, and entered the second half with a considerable advantage in the race for seed n . 8 in the West. However, despite the fact that the Grizzlies are likely to put Justise Winslow back on the floor now that her back injury has had time to heal, FiveThirtyEight is pessimistic about their chances of staying in place. While the specific prediction for Elo (which is based primarily on this season’s performance, as well as some of the past seasons) offers the Grizzlies a 69 percent chance to progress towards the postseason, the version of the prediction fueled by the RAPTOR player rankings increases this possibility with only 38 percent, instead favoring the next team on our list despite the fact that it must recover some ground or win a series of play-ins.
Pelicans from New Orleans
28-36, 10th in the West, 3.5 games back
FiveThirtyEight prediction: 45% playoff, <1% west, <1% final
Projected sowing WL: 5-3; 33-39 (participant in play-in against POR)
COVID-19: Three unnamed players (announced)
Superstar novice Zion Williamson left the bubble last week to deal with what pelicans described as an “urgent medical issue for the family”. At some point he expects to join the team, and our projections have not yet been modified to take into account his potential absence – mainly because we do not yet know how long it could be said absence, or if he will return in time to take part in everyone. and eight the seeding games. Sion or not Sion, the pelicans must remain within four games of the Grizzlies (while holding Blazers, Spurs, Kings and Suns at the same time) to force a series of play-ins. The system currently favors Pellies to grab seed no. 8 from Grizz’s clutches, the result of both New Orleans roster scores (where Williamson’s presence heavily affects) and a cupcake program that is the simplest of any team invited to Disney.
Brooklyn nets
30-34, 7th in the East
FiveThirtyEight prediction: 95% playoffs, <1% east, <1% finals
Projected sowing WL: 2-6; 32-40 (8 ° east)
COVID-19: Kevin Durant and three unnamed teammates (announced), DeAndre Jordan (out), Spencer Dinwiddie (out), Taurean Prince (out), Michael Beasley (out)
The networks will be virtually unrecognizable in Orlando. As you may have already forgotten, Kenny Atkinson and the team “agreed to split up” this year, with Atkinson replaced by interim coach Jacque Vaughn. Vaughn immediately put Jordan in the starting lineup ahead of Jarrett Allen, but Jordan tested positive for COVID-19 and therefore, together with his friends Durant and Kyrie Irving, will not participate in the restart. It is not the only one. Dinwiddie and Prince are also unscheduled with positive coronavirus tests, while Wilson Chandler has given up on rebooting due to his family’s health concerns. The Nets signed several substitute players to account for their various absences, but one of those players was Beasley, who later turned out to be positive for COVID-19 and left the bubble. However, we expect Brooklyn to remain on its playoff point and will strictly avoid a series of play-ins against the Wizards.
Orlando Magic
30-35, 8 ° east
FiveThirtyEight prediction: > 99% playoffs, <1% east, <1% finals
Sowing projection WL: 4-4; 34-39 (7th in the East)
COVID-19: James Ennis (recovered)
Magics have the advantage of participating in a reboot held essentially in their own backyard. They, like other beaten teams, also had the time needed to treat injuries. In particular, Evan Fournier should return from the elbow injury that put him aside before the break, returning Magic to one of his best scorers. Orlando’s restart schedule is significantly tougher than it would have faced during the current regular season, but still ranks in the bottom third of the remaining teams. This, in addition to the wave of Brooklyn absences, leads our predictions to believe that Magic will override the Networks for seed no. 7 in the East, thus avoiding having to face the Buck in the first round.
