NBA teams usually have to worry about injuries or illness by forcing players on the sidelines, but there is a new problem to face as the league resumes in Orlando. Several players, with probably others coming, have chosen not to participate in the rest of the 2019-2020 season for various reasons, from health to social justice. Players have every right to make that choice, but leave their teams with questions about how to replace them.
With that in mind, we took a look at the players who have already given up competition in the bubble and tried to figure out which players would have been the most difficult and easy to replace, statistically speaking. Since no single digit completely encapsulates a player’s impact, we took the average of the player’s rank in five statistics designed to measure the overall value: real plus-minus (RPM), plus-minus box (BPM), value relative to replacement player (VORP), win actions for 48 minutes (WS / 48) and player efficiency rating (PER).
This left each player with an overall “statistical rank”, which gives you an idea of where they are relative to the rest of the NBA. With this method, the statistical rank of MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo would be 1.2, while a relatively average player like James Ennis would have a statistical rank of 305.8. This should give you some context as to what these numbers mean and how difficult it will be to replace players for the rest of the season. For good measure, we also looked at the team’s net score with that player on and off the pitch this season.
* The average of the statistics is RPM, BPM, VORP, WS / 48 and PER
- Stat rank: 395.4
- Net evaluation on / off: minus-7.6
On the surface it may seem that losing a wing playing for 20 minutes per game would be a serious blow to the nets, but Chandler has been rather ineffective in his 35 games this season after a PED suspension to start the year. Brooklyn has been 7.6 points worse than its opponents for 100 possessions with Chandler on the pitch this season, so they might actually do better to split his minutes between other wings. This will also allow Nets coach Jacque Vaughn to get more minutes from the formation of Spencer Dinwiddie (if he goes), Joe Harris, Caris LeVert, Taurean Prince and Garrett Temple, which has a net score of over 11.6 this season in 208 minutes.
- Stat rank: 312.6
- Net evaluation on / off: plus-0.8
This is where the statistics seem to be a little short of contribution, as most would agree that Bradley’s renunciation is a significant loss for the Lakers. The question is whether they can break even by giving their report to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso and the newly signed JR Smith. Bradley helps the Lakers in position by defending by defending the opposing guards, which allows LeBron James to take on guard duty on offense, and the team has been better on the defensive with Bradley on the pitch. Statistics indicate that Bradley’s absence will not affect the Lakers’ title hopes in one way or another, but given his experience in the playoffs and basketball IQ, they would certainly prefer to have him out there.
- Stat rank: 308.4
- Net evaluation on / off: minus-2.6
Oladipo is perhaps the greatest named player who has given up so far, and his case is staggering. On the one hand, it would have been more than able to make a big difference in the Pacer post-season. On the other hand, evidence during his 13 games with the team suggests that he is still far from being the All-Star fans who have come to know and love in Indiana. Oladipo was clearly improving, but the Pacers were worse off with him on the field and there is no telling if he could have improved enough at the start of the playoffs to have a significant impact. Unfortunately, we won’t have a chance to find out, and the Pacers – already thin in the backcourt after Jeremy Lamb’s loss – will have to lean on Justin Holiday and Doug McDermott to fill those winged minutes, with players like TJ McConnell, Aaron Holiday and Edmond Sumner. they are probably running more.
- Stat rank: 292.4
- Net evaluation on / off: plus-0.6
A veteran defender, Sefolosha has played just over 10 minutes per game for the Rockets this season and hasn’t seen the field in six of the team’s last seven games before the March break. It wasn’t a big factor for the Rockets, even in their small ball setups, and they’ve already replaced him with Luc Mbah at Moute, which our James Herbert says can have a huge impact on Houston’s defense despite not playing in an NBA game since October 2018. The Rockets may have been updated by Sefolosha by choosing to sit down.
- Stat rank: 219.2
- Net rating on / off (with blazer): plus-8
Ariza’s statistical rank has been distorted since he played mid-season in Sacramento, where he was terribly offensive. Since joining Portland in January, however, it has been a key part of Portland’s subtle wing rotation, so losing it makes the Blazers’ path to the Orlando postseason much more difficult. The Blazers have been a plus-8 with Ariza on the pitch this season, and it has been essential for one of the best formations of the team (plus 5.6 net votes in 230 minutes) alongside Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Carmelo Anthony and Hassan Whiteside. Perhaps the worst part for Blazers is that, even without Rodney Hood, they will be forced to play with wings like Gary Trent Jr. and Nassir Little, which have not been fantastic and do not have a modicum of the playoff experience that Ariza has.
- Stat rank: 135.8
- Net evaluation on / off (with Mavericks): minus-1.1
Cauley-Stein’s advanced metrics are pretty good, but this is largely from his time playing a leading role with the Warriors this season. Since joining Dallas he has been in and out of the rotation, so his impact on Orlando would probably have been minimal. Having said that, without Dwight Powell some matchups will present a problem for the Mavericks, and it would have been nice to have at least the chance to throw Cauley-Stein out there for 8-10 minutes here and there to be a lob and rim-runner threat. At present, they will likely rely heavily on formations with Kristaps Porzingis in the center, which have been incredibly effective this season. So overall, there hasn’t been a big loss here for the Mavs.
- Stat rank: 115.6
- Net evaluation on / off: plus-7.3
The Wizards have been just as terribly defensive with or without Bertans on the floor this season, but during his minutes they turned into an offensive giant, scoring 113.6 points per 100 possessions. Due to the volume and efficiency of his 3-point shot, Bertans is 23rd in the real plus-minus of ESPN, ahead of All-Stars Rudy Gobert, Pascal Siakam and Jayson Tatum. The other advanced stats are not as friendly with Bertans, but there is absolutely no doubt that he is the most important player on the Magicians roster not called Bradley Beal. Without Bertans, the mages’ meager hopes of further reducing the season after the season.
- Stat rank: 81.8
- Net evaluation on / off: minus-1.5
It might be a little surprising that Jordan is statistically the most impactful player to give up on Orlando so far – it depends on whether you agree with those statistics. Jordan is in the top 60 this season in BPM, VORP, PER and WS / 48, but drops to 214 in the real plus-minus, which seems rather anomalous. The higher rankings are somewhat disconcerting, however, when you see that the nets were actually 1.5 points per 100 possessions worse with Jordan on the pitch. He entered the initial lineup for the last two games before the stoppage – both wins – so the nets basically lost their center on the first rope. Jordan has also been part of one of the team’s best lineups this season (plus -13.1 in 86 minutes), with Dinwiddie, Harris, Prince and Garrett Temple. Jarrett Allen will have to absorb more minutes, with more ball formations likely on the way to Brooklyn.
