Lots of virtual ink has been spilled on the Green Bay Packers’ wide receiver and tight end position deficits in 2019. Lots of virtual ink has been spent talking about how Green Bay needed to improve its production at these places in 2020. The free agency came and went and Green Bay only added the pseudo-TE Devin Funchess. With a group that already has a lot of fat and not very fast guys, Funchess adds a level of redundancy that they could probably have done without. But, at least, he’s almost certainly better than Geronimo Allison.
The off-season is not over! I hope we will have a season, but if we do, there will certainly be implications of our current crisis that extend beyond 2020. NFL teams do not know how the impacts of the salary cap this will play out in the years to come, but the best assumptions now are that the ceiling will be flattened and growth will be borrowed in future years to avoid a ceiling catastrophe. If the cap were to drop 25%, much of the league would be immediately above the cap with little exit. Neither the NFL nor the NFLPA wants it, so it’s more likely to spread the pain throughout the 2020s.
To help create more cap space in the coming years to increase turnover in the cap rooms, to open the cap space for this year or to move from an excess player to requirements, we could see more cap reductions in boot camp this year than most. This can provide an opportunity for teams looking to get players for very little, whether by claiming waivers, acquiring them in a trade for very little compensation, or getting them as a free agent. street. For a Packers receiving a body that is light on proven bodies, there are a few options that may be on the table in August.
Albert Wilson
Wilson spent two years in Miami after a promising start in Kansas City. In a very strong 2017, Wilson posted a DVOA of 21.4%, good for eighth place in the NFL. He also ranked a solid 26th in yards per target. According to Next Gen Stats, he was also the NFL leader in the average game separation yards at 4.1 yards.
Wilson continued this solid season with a $ 24 million, 3-year contract with Miami. In his first year, he posted another solid 10.8% DVOA. He improved his target yards to 11.2 instead of 8.9, and if he had qualified he would have been tied for third in the NFL. Unfortunately, he did not have enough targets to qualify because he suffered a fairly serious injury. In late October, Wilson was diagnosed with a small fracture and a right hip labrum tear that ended his season.
Hoping for a year of rebound in 2019, Wilson certainly has not kept his promises. His DVOA was appalling at -23.7%. His yards per target ranked 134th at just 5.7. Never a player who made a living on the field, his targeted air yards remained low, but his average separation dropped from his peak in Kansas City from 4.1 to 3.5 meters.
By cutting Wilson, Miami could create just under $ 3 million in ceiling space and move from someone who has become a disappointing player. For Green Bay, the acquisition of Wilson would be a bet on a rebounding player almost two years after his hip injury. There is no doubt that the cost to Wilson would be fairly low, and he would fill the role of slot machine player that Green Bay doesn’t really have in his current group, but it is possible that the injury has just ruined the player. .
Kenny Stills
Bill O’Brien is something. He took a receiving body that had Deandre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Kenny Stills and turned it into one with Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. It made it more expensive and worse. Impressive.
There is no guarantee that Houston will move from Stills, but the actions of this off-season speak loudly. Houston has signed Cobb in free agency to an important contract, exchanged for Brandin Cooks, and Will Fuller has a fully guaranteed agreement for this season. This probably leaves Stills like the odd man with no cap if he is cut / traded. Houston could create $ 7 million in ceiling space.
This fact is quite surprising when you understand that Kenny Stills is good. Not even false, but good. In 2019, Stills ranked 5th in the NFL in DVOA with 24.7%. In 2018, he ranked 22nd with 12.6%. In fact, the only year in his career where the average was not at least higher than 2015 was first place. Kenny Stills is good.
I think the perception on Stills must be distorted of playing with a few bad quarters in Miami. While dealing with Ryan Tannehill before the breakthrough and Jay Cutler’s carcass, Stills was rather a solid WR at good in terms of raw statistics. When he legitimately exceeded a quarter of the average in New Orleans and Houston, Stills was great. His yards per target in 2013, 2014 and 2019 were 12.8, 11.2 and 10.2 respectively. All of these figures would have been in the top 10 last year.
Although the effectiveness of Stills is fantastic, its volume has never approached incredibly high figures. He only has three seasons with more than 80 targets, but he has no season with less than 50. The compromise for lower volumes was the vertical threat. Stills has also spent much of his career as a field stretcher. In 2019, that role was largely left to fellow speedster Will Fuller, but in 2018, Stills was fourth in the NFL in average target depth at 16.4 yards. He placed 14th in 2017 and 10th in 2016. Green Bay desperately needs a reliable field goal, and Stills fits that bill perfectly.
Honestly, I don’t know why Houston did what it did during the off-season, but essentially pushing Stills out of the host body is a bizarre choice. If I’m a GM from the NFL, I regularly send O’Brien commercial offers trying to escape its broad, productive receiver.
