Rocket bets against Mavericks
| Rocket probability | 1.5 [BET NOW] |
| Mavericks probability | -1.5 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | + 106 / -120 [BET NOW] |
| over | 229.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 9:00 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Probability from Thursday evening and away DraftKings. Get a $ 1,000 sign up bonus today at DraftKings or view other offers and reviews for best online sports betting.
If you got lost watching James Harden and Luka Doncic, you are not alone. It will be an extraordinary experience to see these two offensive dynamos return to action on Friday when Orlando reboots.
The rockets and the Mavericks sit respectively in the sixth and seventh places of the Western Conference, so both teams will certainly be motivated to rise in the rankings – not because of the advantage of the home field, which is now non-existent in Orlando, but because they want to avoid a potential showdown with 2-seed Clippers in the first round.
Given that context, where are these teams located and what is the value in the betting market? Let’s go through.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets faced the COVID-19 epidemic in their locker room, but it looked like they would have a full list on Friday outside of Thabo Sefolosha, who decided to stay home for the restart.
This changed this week when crucial guard Eric Gordon came down with an ankle sprain and is expected to come out 1-2 weeks.
This probably means more minutes for Danuel House in particular, but also for Robert Covington, Ben McLemore and Austin Rivers. In the season, the Rockets have done really well without Gordon on the floor. In fact, they were largely neutral in an offensive way with him against and outside and better in defense with him on the bench.
This implies the importance of Gordon, of course, since he is a skilled tertiary, a solid (albeit irregular) shooter and an underestimated perimeter defender given his size and physique. But his absence would have been felt more in a playoff situation and perhaps less in these early games.
The last thing to note is that it seems that while the teams will slowly increase their stars and be very cautious about the minutes, the Rockets – as usual – will not take the same strategy. Expect great minutes and use from James Harden and Russell Westbrook.
Dallas Mavericks
The last time we saw the Mavericks, they had … oh yes … the best offense in the scary NBA story. Yes, they were so good.
In terms of injuries, they’re a little thin with Jalen Brunson, Courtney Lee and Willie Cauley-Stein all out for the rest of the season, but their main guys in Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are still there to make up for it.
The question that goes on with the Mavs is whether they can improve the defense, which ended the first part of season 17 in defensive efficiency. They were particularly poor at forcing turnover and limiting opponents in transition. When they were set up, they weren’t great, but they were fine, but against a team of frantic rockets, this could be a problem.
Betting and Pick Analysis
We are witnessing a meeting between the two best offensive teams in the league that can dominate during the transition and become absolutely ardent from beyond the arc. And somehow this total opened at 225.5?
Overall, I think the over / under of these first two days in Orlando have been ridiculously low by bookmakers to get started. I understand that there was uncertainty because of the unique situation, but what would this total be if it were just a game of the normal season in March? Over 240 probably?
I don’t think the factors involved deserve a move of 15 points or more down, so obviously I think there is a lot of value on the over, which are usually tough bets for the pros. These are just wrong, in my opinion.
I bet at 227.5 and I have no problem wagering up to 231.
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