In honor of the tenth anniversary of “The Decision”, CBS Sports is reviewing LeBron James‘2010 decision to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat wondering what could have happened if James had signed elsewhere. In today’s edition, James travels to Los Angeles eight years in advance to sign with the scissors.
The logic
LeBron James actually landed in Los Angeles. The same logic would apply here. James would have chosen the Los Angeles market to ensure the continued growth of his commercial interests off the pitch. Choosing the Clippers instantly forms a captivating rivalry with the Lakers, and being the first player to leave the Los Angeles scales away from those Lakers would be an instant boost to his legacy.
The citation (geographically incorrect)
“I am bringing my talents to Hollywood and joining the Los Angeles Clippers.”
How’s the next decade of NBA history going?
The first thing is the first: there is no possibility that James can play for Donald Sterling, then owner of the Clippers. He is too intelligent and too knowledgeable about racial policy to ever work for anyone with Sterling’s history. This alternate story requires a change and, fortunately, one was possible at the time. Music mogul David Geffen attempted to purchase the Clippers from Sterling in 2010 and in 2014 said that James would have been interested if he had completed the purchase. At the time, Geffen offered only $ 600 million for the Clippers and was rejected by Sterling. It is not difficult to understand why. The Washington Wizards sold for around $ 550 million over the same period, while the Golden State Warriors cost $ 450 million. If Sterling intended to sell the Clippers, it would have come at a prize that reflected the value of the Los Angeles market. With James’ commitment, we will say that Geffen sees the potential windfall and increases his offerings to $ 1 billion. That’s enough to get the team out of Sterling.
Clippers don’t have enough money in this scenario to pursue a second superstar alongside LeBron, so they spend their time and continue building around the young core that is already in place. Miami loses James, but Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh land again. They use their third maximum pay slot to trade with the great Minnesota man Timberwolves Al Jefferson. The rest of the free agency proceeds largely from numbers.
The expectation after LeBron’s move to Los Angeles was that he would find another veteran superstar to follow him. In fact, they hardly need it. Blake Griffin is as good as a rookie playing alongside James who chasing discontented Carmelo Anthony, another attacker, makes no sense. They sniff around the Jazz point guard Deron Williams, but they scoff at Utah’s obscene price when a much cheaper update than the point guard comes up. As soon as Dan Gilbert wants to help LeBron, the Clippers convince the Knights to swap Baron Davis and their unprotected choice in the first round with veteran Mo Williams, reuniting him with James. That choice, in real life, turned into Kyrie Irving. These Clippers are significantly better and that choice is subsequently worse. With them out of the game, the team that would occupy their position in the lottery is Charlotte Bobcats, who enthusiastically takes Irving n. 1 ever. Kemba Walker, whom Charlotte actually chose, falls from the Sacramento Kings.
The new Clippers are too young to win a championship in 2011, eventually losing to eventual champion Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference finals, but Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Eric Gordon and LeBron’s favorite future Eric Bledsoe are so promising that a the future dynasty of the Clippers seems assured. In that low season, they consider pursuing Chris Paul in an exchange with the New Orleans Hornets, but the Lakers, in a desperate attempt to bring the Los Angeles current back in their direction, have beaten them. Gilbert has put heavy pressure on allowing Paul-to-the-Lakers to trade in reality, but knowing that the alternative here would mean giving it to LeBron, he keeps his mouth shut and David Stern agrees to allow the deal. With no other superstars available and no other major needs, the Clippers reprogram Jordan and use their remaining hood space on extra pieces Shane Battier and Jamal Crawford.
This gives Clippers one of the deepest roster in NBA history, which proves essential in a season shortened by the block that robs them of Gordon. The Oklahoma City Thunder offers them a series in the Western Conference finals, but once they get past that series, the old Boston Celtics can’t compete in the NBA finals. James wins his first championship, rightly so, against his old Eastern Conference rival.
The Lakers, once again trying to stop James from taking over their city, acquire Dwight Howard. On paper, this creates a potentially legendary matchup between the two Los Angeles teams, but the Lakers never freeze as Howard’s carefree personality collides with dictator Paul and Kobe Bryant. He leaves for Houston out of season. Things are not so smooth for Clippers. Gordon’s health remains a question mark, but with Crawford in place as a backup, the Clippers see no reason to pursue Ray Allen as the 2012-13 Heat. Crawford misses the shot at the end of Game 6 of the Clippers series against San Antonio that Allen has made for Miami in real life, and the Spurs continue to beat the Indiana Pacers to win the championship. Despite rumors of Doc Rivers’ interest, Vinny Del Negro’s championship cache gives him a new contract. Without an obvious destination, Rivers stays with Boston for another year before leaving Boston to take over as the coach and president of basketball operations for the New York Knicks.
The Clippers received a rematch with San Antonio a year later. The real-time Spurs used their 2013 loss as a motivator against LeBron the following season and took advantage of his decrepit support cast to dominate the Heat. Neither factor works in their favor this time, as the Clippers are largely the first and have the whole year to plan their revenge. It only takes five games to ship San Antonio before beating Pacer and winning their second title.
Even after the championship, LeBron considers exploring the free agency again in 2014. The problem he encounters is that while he’s interested in a meeting with Cleveland, his list isn’t nearly ready for him. Without Irving, the Cavaliers again have the worst NBA record during the 2011-12 season. This makes them choice no. 2 based on the results of that season’s lottery. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was the selection there, and obviously he does very little to help their cause. So Cleveland has the best lottery odds yet in 2013. This makes them the choice no. 2 for the second consecutive season, wasting on Anthony Bennett. Despite their draft failures, the Cavaliers are knocked out by the Philadelphia 76ers during the 2013-14 season. This ends with the second choice of Philadelphia and the third with Cleveland. Ironically, the bad luck of the Cavs lottery eventually pays off. Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker are the first two selections, forcing the Cavaliers to “settle” for Joel Embiid. James still doesn’t know what type of player he will be, and with Cleveland still in the bathroom, he chooses to opt for the last two years of his Clippers contract and see if Cleveland can improve by 2016.
That decision proves disastrous when Griffin’s problems start seriously during the 2014-15 season. His absence costs the Clippers two potential championship matches. The first goes to the Golden State Warriors, who take advantage of Minnesota’s lack of leverage to minimize the Timberwolves in translating them with Kevin Love for Harrison Barnes and the well-known Draymond Green backup. In fact, Cleveland’s presence as another suitor has prevented the Timberwolves from accepting this package, but without James pushing for Love in Cleveland, Minnesota has no choice but to accept the Golden State offer. The second title goes to Oklahoma City, which leads Kevin Durant to sign again that summer. LeBron joins the agency for the second time in 2016, who died on his return to Cleveland.
He still doesn’t know what type of player Embiid will be, but the Knights, fortunately, will do a little better in the next two drafts, landing D’Angelo Russell in 2015 and Buddy Hield in 2016. The maximum peak of 2016 allows Cavs to have led not only James, but Dwyane Wade, who was insulted by Miami’s low-ball offer that summer. Embiid also returns to the fold that season, but while another injury puts him out in the middle of the year, Oklahoma City ends up repeating as champions behind Durant.
With a healthy Embiid at his side, LeBron eventually wins his elusive first championship in Cleveland in 2018. The Cavs fail to repeat, however, falling to Kawhi Leonard’s Raptors in the post-season. Leonard goes to Los Angeles that summer, but James doesn’t follow him. He has enough of a foothold in Los Angeles since his time as a Clipper to postpone moving there for a few years, and with Embiid as his racing partner, he believes he can compete for the championships for the foreseeable future. So in the 2019 offseason, LeBron signs another maximum contract with the Cavaliers, promising to end his career in Cleveland.
Was this result better than LeBron’s reality?
Probably slightly worse. He still enters the 2020 with three championships, but none of them have been won consecutively, and whatever would have happened in the hypothetical 2018 title race in Cleveland, nothing could have equaled the euphoria of the Knights returning from a 3-1 deficit against a Team Warriors 73 winners. His odds of winning a fourth title are probably less with Embiid than they are currently with Anthony Davis, thanks also to Embiid’s injury history, so LeBron is probably happy to have waited before heading west.
